Is The Party Over???
Christopher Thornberg, senior economist with the espected UCLA Anderson Forecast, told a business group that he believes a drastic deceleration in home sales is coming. "You are starting to see a slowdown in housing market activity, and that says loud and clear that things are starting to break." He believes house prices are about 30 percent to 40 percent overvalued.
"If you have a big decline in unit sales, you'll have mortgage brokers and real estate agents and construction workers all losing jobs. And what's driving the California job market right now? Construction, finance and real estate jobs.
Those will go away...all that wonderful money is going to disappear. Suddenly, the house isn't going to be able to pay for the kids' education, it's not going to pay for your retirement in Bermuda and it's not going to pay for that face-lift at age 74."
Thornberg adds, "...we have peaked. And beyond that is a downhill run."
Consider:
* 42% of all first-time buyers put down nothing. More than two-thirds put down almost nothing.
* They don't pay back a dime of principal. One-third of all mortgages are now interest only. In California, about half of all mortgages are interest-only. In the Bay Area, make that two-thirds.
* Thanks to easy terms, the payments on the new place are lower than on the buyer's previous home...for the time being.
* Lots of buyers are skipping occasional monthly payment and adding the difference to their debt.
* More than 1/3 of all home sales involve second homes, usually speculations. Florida is packed with condos that no one lives in - up to 40% of "home" sales in some markets!
What's happening is that home buyers and sellers are trading pieces of paper that say some house is worth, let's say, $450,000. But nobody's bank account or paycheck is taking a hit to pay those prices. No one is working longer hours to repay the vast new debts. It's a fool's paradise - until interest rates go up, principal payments come due, and prices start to tum ble.
We're talking about borrowers who spend every dime and live from paycheck to paycheck. They never save a penny. In 2005 Americans' personal savings rate dipped into negative territory, minus 0.5 percent, something that has not happened since the Great Depression. This means that Americans not only spent all of their after-tax income last year but had to increase borrowing (unless they had savings to wipe out).
The savings rate has been negative for an entire year only twice before, in 1932 and 1933, two years when the country was struggling to cope with the Great Depression, a time of massive business failures and job layoffs.
Worse yet, they've loaded up on credit card debt as well as mortgage debt. Their adjustable house payment will go up like crazy at the very same time their house loses value.
Do you think they're going to tough it out and continue to make those payments? Don't count on it. Most of them couldn't do it if they tried. In fact, millions will lose their jobs as the economy turns down.
40 percent of the new jobs in this country in the last few years have been housing related. Those jobs will disappear.
Look for a huge, huge wave of defaults. Desperate homeowners will load up the furniture, hand the keys to the lender and drive away. What's more, they'll do it by the millions, bringing down the world's biggest financial institutions and crashing the stock market while they're at it.
The Wall Street Journal says, "In recent years, the housing industry has bent over backward to allow people...to buy houses they couldn't previously afford. Now the bill is coming due."
Money Magazine reports that home prices are going up five times as fast as personal income. "In fact, the market could not have run this far if not for the proliferation of interest-only mortgages, which make it possible for people to purchase more home than they could otherwise afford."
Forbes warns, "Get out now, because house prices on the urban coasts have peaked. That's the consensus of experts, based on ratios such as house prices to local incomes...Rising interest rates have started to put the brakes on house appreciation. The number of 'for sale' signs in California is exploding like spring pollen."
And The Daily Reckoning (www.dailyreckoning.com) says, "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the lenders behind $4 trillion of housing loans. These institutions are guilty of manipulations that make the folks at Enron look like a bunch of Boy Scouts. They've cooked their books, concealed huge losses, paid off politicians, and lied to investors every which way from Sunday.
"These giant lenders are in no position to weather even a small downturn. But the downturn has already started, and it's NOT going to be small. When these big companies fail, it will rock financial markets. Interest rates will soar.
"The main difference between these scandals and Enron is SIZE. The wealth that will go down the tubes this time is thousands of times greater. Every singleinvestor, homeowner, and government in the world will feel the shock. Home buying could dry up because borrowers can't get financing. And anyway, who wants to buy a house that's losing value? Wait six months and you can get it cheaper,
people will figure."
Those of us who were in the real estate and mortgage market in the Jimmy Carter years know what that's like. Those of you who weren't around then have a big surprise in store. And this one will make those years look like a picnic.
"The downward spiral won't stop once people stop believing that real estate always goes up.
"Americans owe $7 trillion on their homes - twice as much as 10 years ago. But our incomes - our ability to pay - have gone up by a fraction of that amount.
"It's painfully clear a lot of that $7 trillion will never be paid back. And the biggest lenders on the planet are going down. "
As for me, I'm dusting off my books on making money in financial panics.
My advice: Get out of the stock market, sell your real estate and convert at least 25% of your cash to non-numismatic gold coins (see http://www.the-moneychanger.com). Also, get to know every bank REO officer in your town. REO means "Real Estate Owned." These are the folks who dispose of properties the banks get in foreclosures. Let them know you are an investor interested in buying property at the right price. But don't buy any now. Wait until the banks are awash in foreclosed property. Just make sure all the REO officers know how to reach you then.
From
PaperSourceOnline.comPosted by Chuck
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